Monday, September 27, 2004

Where does the time go for political seers?

We are down to almost a month before the election and 2 days to the first presidential debate and the trends, if there are any, in this fevered period are less visible than Cassieopeia on a cloudy Seattle night.

It seems that Washington, the state, will go Democratic in a big way. Rossi has failed to create any momentum from his first debate with Gregoire and McKenna is a nonentity. Normally in state wide races, I could care less how the republicans do, it's just that McKenna's opponent, Deborah Senn, is such a walking disaster that it's hard not to worry about the long term ramifications should she win.

The Attorney General is the second most visible statewide office in state government and one of the keys to a successful tenure is a good relationship with the state legislature. Not only does the legislature fund the 460+ attorney office, it also must approve any legislative initiatives coming from the AG's office which seek to amend bad laws and propose new laws to meet new situations. And from my insider informant in the state house, it is clear that a Senn election would be met not just by stony silence from both sides of the aisles in Olympia, but by active sabotage efforts. When Senn was the Insurance Commissioner, she regularly tried to ride over the backs of state legislators to get what she wanted. And when that didn't work, she resorted to connivance. Many of these legislators are still in office and they not only have long memories, they have long knives as well. As I can certify, testifying before a legislative committee is not as fun as a root canal. But it is necessary if you want to get those things like pay raises that are so necessary to running the AGO. Don't expect Senn to do the hard work required. Instead I predict that should she be elected, her tenure will be marked by guerilla warfare and a trenches mentality, with Senn sending in proxies to do her job so she has someone else to blame when things go south

Hope I'm wrong.

Moe, busy reading entrails on this harvest moon night

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